Trump approval rating: Donald Trump at a podium with American flags as a new Fox News poll puts his approval at a record-low 36%

Trump Approval Rating Hits New Low of 36% in Fox News Poll as Democrats Lead by 9 Points

by

President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a new low — and this time, the bad news comes from Fox News. A new Fox News national poll puts the Trump approval rating at just 36%, with 64% of registered voters disapproving, marking the lowest job approval the president has ever recorded in the network’s polling across either of his two terms in the White House.

The Trump approval rating collapse lands just 19 days before the November 3 midterm elections, and the survey contains a stack of warning signs for Republicans beyond the headline number. Democrats now lead the generic congressional ballot by nine points — their largest advantage of the year in Fox News polling — powered by a staggering 26-point edge among independent voters.

From inflation to the economy to tariffs, voters are grading the president harshly on the issues that matter most to them. Here is what the Fox News poll found, what the national polling averages say about the Trump approval rating, and what history suggests it all means for November.

The Numbers: Trump Approval Rating Falls to 36%, a Record Low

The survey, released October 14 and conducted October 9–12 among 1,202 registered voters, found just 36% approving of Trump’s job performance while nearly two-thirds disapproved, USA Today reported. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

According to Fox News, 36% is the lowest Trump approval rating the network has ever measured in either of his terms. His rating had been holding steady at 39% since May — the three-point drop breaks through that months-long floor.

The erosion is reaching into Trump’s own coalition. Approval among Republicans stood at 76%, down three points from September and down 16 points from March 2025, when he was only months into his second term, USA Today noted. Fox News reported the decline was driven mainly by drops among voters under 45, those with household incomes below $50,000, non-white voters, and those without a college degree — demographic groups that have historically anchored Trump’s base.

Inflation and the Economy: Trump’s Weakest Marks

If one issue explains the Trump approval rating slide, it is the cost of living. The Trump approval rating on inflation specifically hit a new low: just 22% approved of his handling of it — down from 36% last summer — while 77% disapproved, Fox News reported.

That 22% figure sits seven points below the inflation approval rating former President Joe Biden posted ahead of the 2022 midterms, underscoring how far the politics of prices have shifted against the incumbent party.

The rest of the economic report card is nearly as grim: 70% disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy overall, 69% disapproved on tariffs, and 64% disapproved on foreign policy. A smaller but still majority share — 56% — disapproved of his handling of immigration. Border security was the lone relative bright spot, split evenly at 50% approve and 50% disapprove.

The economic mood behind those numbers is bleak. Six in 10 voters said the cost of living is their top economic worry, dwarfing government spending (15%), jobs and income inequality (7% each), tariffs (6%), and taxes (5%). Nearly three-quarters rated the economy negatively, a majority expected it to get worse next year, and two-thirds said they were dissatisfied with how things are going in the country. Just 18% said their family was better off than two years ago — while a majority, 55%, said inflation was “not at all” under control, up from 45% earlier this year. That includes 30% of Republicans.

Independents are feeling it most acutely: 52% said they were worse off and 70% expected the economy to worsen, according to Fox News.

Generic Ballot: Democrats Lead by 9, Dominate Independents

The Trump approval rating is not the only number keeping Republican strategists up at night. On the generic congressional ballot — which asks voters which party’s candidate they would support in their district — Democrats led Republicans by nine percentage points, their largest advantage of the year in Fox News polling and a two-point improvement from September, USA Today reported.

Independent voters are driving much of that edge. Democrats held a 26-point lead among independents, giving the party a commanding advantage with the bloc that typically decides competitive races.

Political analyst Chris Cillizza, breaking down the survey, noted that Democrats are now more trusted than Republicans on 10 of the 13 issues tested in the poll — and that the Republican Party as a whole is now viewed less favorably than the Democratic Party, he said in his analysis.

“Send a Message to Trump”: 7 in 10 Voters

Perhaps the most ominous finding for the GOP: seven in 10 Americans said their vote in November would be intended to send a message to Trump. Among those voters, 47% said that message would be one of opposition to the president.

Midterm elections are historically referendums on the sitting president, and this one is shaping up as exactly that — with the president himself as the central issue on the ballot even though his name is not on it. See StateLineDaily’s guide to why the 2026 midterms matter more than ever for the full stakes in races across the country.

Polling Averages: Trump Approval Rating Deep Underwater

The Fox News survey is not an outlier. As of October 15, the RealClearPolitics average put the Trump approval rating at 38.8% with 59.2% disapproving; the New York Times polling average had him at 37% approval and 60% disapproval; and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin average showed 37.5% approval against 59.8% disapproval, USA Today reported.

A Pew Research Center survey conducted September 28–October 4 found an even starker result: just 30% of Americans approved of Trump’s handling of the job while 68% disapproved — down four points from July, his lowest mark of the second term, and on par with his rating just before leaving office in January 2021, Pew reported.

The Enthusiasm Gap: Democrats Want It More

Here is what most coverage of the Trump approval rating slide is missing: the enthusiasm gap underneath the numbers may matter more than the toplines. A Reuters/Ipsos survey released this week found that only 30% of voters who backed Trump in 2024 described themselves as “very enthusiastic” about voting in the midterms — compared with 48% of voters who supported Kamala Harris, USA Today reported.

Among the most enthusiastic voters, 62% said they were eager to vote against the president, while just 36% said they were excited to support him. In other words, the energy in this electorate is disproportionately anti-Trump energy.

Pew’s research points the same way: Democratic voters are significantly more engaged in the midterms than Republicans, and the poll found that just 67% of Trump’s own 2024 voters still approve of his job performance — down 28 percentage points from the start of his second term. Only 39% of Republicans said they were satisfied with the direction of the country, down from 65% at the start of Trump’s term and the lowest level recorded during his second presidency.

For a party counting on base turnout to survive a brutal national environment, an enthusiasm deficit this lopsided 19 days out is a five-alarm fire.

History’s Warning: What Past Midterms Say About These Numbers

The second thing most coverage skips: history gives these numbers a grim translation. According to the American Presidency Project, the president’s party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections from 1934 through 2022, Action Network noted. Republicans lost 41 seats during Trump’s first term in 2018; Democrats lost nine under Biden in 2022.

The 2018 parallel is striking. Pollster David Paleologos of Suffolk University noted that Trump’s job approval in October 2018 was 44% — and he still lost 41 House seats. “Today his approval rating is significantly lower,” Paleologos said, according to USA Today.

But a note of caution the horse-race coverage often omits: polls have tended to overstate Democratic strength in recent midterms. Ballotpedia’s analysis found the closest generic-ballot polling to a final result was 2022 (off by just 0.9 points), while the biggest miss was 2010 (off by 7.2 points), Ballotpedia reported. And the Washington Examiner noted that Democratic leads have been overstated by an average of 6.6 points in the 2018 and 2022 midterm cycles — with nonpartisan polls this cycle showing a Democratic edge of just 2.6 points versus 6.2 in Democratic-commissioned surveys, according to the Examiner.

The honest read: the environment is genuinely terrible for Republicans, but the final margin on November 3 could still be narrower than today’s polls suggest.

What It Means for the House and Senate

Fox News’s own election analysts are already reading the writing on the wall. In this week’s Power Rankings, the network concluded that the House is likely out of reach for the GOP: Democrats hold an advantage in at least 219 seats while Republicans are favored in at least 198, with 18 toss-ups on the board, Fox News reported. The analysts noted Trump’s approval is lower now than during his first term in 2018 or Biden’s term in 2022, and the Democratic generic-ballot lead is wider and more enduring than the 2018 “blue wave.”

The Senate, however, remains in play — as it has been in all three recent midterm cycles. Democrats have paths to 51 seats, while Republican paths to 50 are widening, with massive spending flowing into a handful of toss-up states.

Texas is the marquee example: the Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is a dead heat, with a Marist poll putting Talarico ahead 47% to 45%. Read StateLineDaily’s full coverage of Talarico’s CNN town hall in Fort Worth here — and see StateLineDaily’s coverage of Trump’s ongoing legal battles with the press for the wider context of a presidency fighting on multiple fronts.

What’s Next

Can the Trump approval rating recover before November 3? With 19 days left, history says late movement is possible but rare — and the economic pessimism driving the numbers (74% rating the economy negatively, most expecting it to worsen) does not turn on a dime.

Will the generic ballot lead hold? Democrats’ 9-point edge is their largest of the year in Fox polling, but polling-error history suggests the final margin could be narrower. The +26 among independents is the number to watch.

Does the enthusiasm gap decide it? If Democratic voters turn out at far higher rates than Republicans — as the Reuters/Ipsos and Pew data suggest — the House map could break harder toward Democrats than even the polls imply.

What is the GOP’s path? Republican operatives are betting on Trump’s closing rally blitz to drive base turnout and hold at least one chamber — but with the president at 36% and his own 2024 voters cooling, that is a steep climb.

Additional Details

Description: A new Fox News poll puts President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 36% — his lowest ever in the network’s polling — with 64% disapproving, 19 days before the November 3 midterm elections. Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot by 9 points, including a 26-point edge among independents, while 7 in 10 voters say their vote is meant to send a message to Trump. National polling averages (RealClearPolitics, NYT, Silver Bulletin, Pew) all show the Trump approval rating deep underwater. Key figures: 36% approve/64% disapprove; 22% approve on inflation; 1,202 registered voters surveyed Oct 9–12; margin of error ±2.5 points.