Trump Approval Rating Hits Record Low 33% in Washington Post Poll as Democrats Surge Two Weeks Before Midterms

Donald Trump’s Trump approval rating has collapsed to a record low just two weeks before the November 3 midterm elections. A new Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos poll released October 18, 2026, found that only 33% of U.S. adults approve of the president’s job performance, while 66% disapprove — the lowest mark he has ever recorded in this long-running survey.

The survey, conducted October 9-13 among 2,545 adults, lands at the worst possible moment for Republicans.

Two-thirds of Americans say the country is heading in the wrong direction, voters are grading the president brutally on the cost of living, and Democrats have opened their first lead over Republicans on trust to handle the economy in Post-ABC polling since 2014.

With the midterms now 16 days away, the White House is facing what looks like a full-blown voter revolt.

What makes this poll particularly ominous for the GOP is that it comes from a survey series that has tracked the Trump approval rating for years — and it is not alone.

It arrives days after a Fox News poll put the Trump approval rating at 36%, his lowest ever in that network’s polling, confirming that the slide is real, broad, and accelerating across pollsters.

• The Numbers: 33% Approval
• Economy and Cost of Living
• Wrong Track: 72%
• Democrats Trusted on the Economy
• Iran War and Immigration
• Trump’s 2024 Voters Breaking Away
• Generic Ballot: Democrats +8
• What the Poll Averages Say
• What’s Next
• Additional Details

Trump Approval Rating: 33% Approval, the Lowest Mark Ever

The headline of the Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos survey is stark: 33% approve, 66% disapprove. That is down four points since July and eight points lower than a year earlier — and below any point in Trump’s first term, according to reporting on the survey.

Among likely voters, the numbers are only slightly less grim for the president: 38% approve and 62% disapprove.

Perhaps the most alarming figure for Republican strategists sits underneath the topline. Fifty-two percent of Americans say they strongly disapprove of Trump’s job performance — a new high in the survey.

When more than half the country holds a deeply negative view of a sitting president 16 days before a midterm election, the structural problem is no longer a bad news cycle. It is the political environment itself.

Read StateLineDaily’s full breakdown of the Fox News poll that put the Trump approval rating at a record-low 36% earlier this week here — including the polling-average math and the 2018 blue-wave history lesson that explains what these numbers mean for November.

Economy and Cost of Living: Trump’s Weakest Grades

If one issue explains the Trump approval rating slide, it is the cost of living.

Seventy-four percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation and the cost of living. The Trump approval rating on the economy as a whole sits at just 28% — down from 33% in July and miles below the 49% he posted at the 2018 midterms, when he was riding a strong economy into his first midterm test.

The financial pain behind those numbers is measurable and historic. Forty-eight percent of Americans say they are worse off financially since Trump’s return to the White House in 2025 — the highest figure recorded in Post-ABC polling since 1986.

Seven in ten Americans now call gasoline unaffordable, a complete reversal from February, when seven in ten called it affordable before the Iran war sent energy markets spiraling.

Majorities say the same about groceries, health care, and home energy.

The reversal on gasoline prices deserves emphasis because it illustrates how quickly the economic story turned.

In February, the public was broadly satisfied with fuel costs. By October, the Iran conflict’s effect on oil markets had flipped that satisfaction into its mirror image — and voters are blaming the president for it.

By three to one, Americans now rate the economy as “not so good” or “poor.”

Wrong Track: 72% Say the Country Is Headed the Wrong Way

Seventy-two percent of Americans say the country is heading in the wrong direction, up five points since April.

The “wrong track” number is one of the most reliable indicators in American politics: it captures a mood deeper than approval of any single policy, and sustained readings above 70% have historically been associated with punishing midterm results for the party in power.

With the Trump approval rating at a record-low 33%, that history looks ominous for Republicans.

On presidential conduct, the survey contains a battery of findings that go beyond policy. Sixty-six percent of Americans said Trump is using the presidency to enrich himself.

Eight in ten called his push to put his name on the Kennedy Center inappropriate; 74% said the same of federally paid advertisements promoting him; and at least six in ten said he is not committed to press freedoms, free elections, or respecting Congress and the courts.

Those conduct questions matter because they measure something approval toplines cannot: the erosion of institutional trust. When voters decide a president is not committed to free elections or to respecting Congress and the courts, the midterm becomes a referendum on democratic guardrails themselves — exactly the framing Democrats are running on.

Democrats Trusted on the Economy for the First Time in a Decade

Here is the finding most election coverage is underplaying: Democrats have won their first lead over Republicans on trust to handle the economy in Post-ABC polling since 2014 — 40% to 33%. Republicans have owned the economy issue in American polling for more than a decade. That advantage is gone.

How did Democrats take the lead on the economy? The answer runs through inflation and tariffs.

With double-digit advantages on inflation and the cost of living, Democrats have convinced voters that the party of the president is the party of high prices.

Trump’s tariff policy, which supporters argued would protect American workers, is instead showing up in polling as a price problem: voters associate tariffs with the grocery and gas prices they are paying every week.

This is the kind of structural shift that outlives a single news cycle. A party that loses its signature issue advantage 16 days before a midterm does not simply need better messaging. It needs the underlying numbers — prices at the pump and the checkout line — to move, and those do not turn on a dime.

Iran War and Immigration: The Other Drags on Trump’s Standing

Beyond the economy, the survey maps a presidency under pressure on nearly every front. Sixty-five percent of Americans called the Iran military action a mistake. The Trump approval rating on his handling of the war with Iran sits at just 29% — and 58% say his policies are hurting the country, against only 28% who say they are helping.

The Iran war’s fingerprints are all over the economic numbers. Voters connect the conflict to high gas prices and financial stress, and the war’s unpopularity compounds the cost-of-living story rather than sitting apart from it. When a foreign conflict is simultaneously unpopular and inflationary, it becomes a political liability on two fronts at once.

On immigration, about six in ten disapproved of Trump’s record, and 56% said he has gone too far in deporting undocumented immigrants — up from 48% in April 2025.

That eight-point move over eighteen months is significant: it suggests that as the administration’s enforcement operations have expanded, public tolerance for them has shrunk. Immigration was once Trump’s strongest issue; the poll shows it is becoming another drag.

Even Trump’s Own 2024 Voters Are Breaking Away

One of the poll’s most under-reported findings is the erosion inside Trump’s own coalition. Even among Americans who voted for Trump in 2024, 23% now disapprove of his job performance overall — rising to 31% on the economy and 38% on inflation.

When nearly four in ten of your own voters disapprove of your handling of the issue that elected you, the base is no longer a fortress.

The turnout signals underneath the toplines favor Democrats as well. Seventy-five percent of Democrats’ registered voters were certain to vote, versus 67% of Republicans.

And the Republican numbers contain a revealing split: 75% of MAGA Republicans were certain to vote, against only 57% of non-MAGA Republicans — and more than a quarter of those non-MAGA Republicans said they prefer Democratic control of Congress.

That last detail is a quiet alarm bell. A meaningful share of the Republican coalition’s moderate wing is not just unenthusiastic — it is rooting for the other side. Combined with the broader enthusiasm picture, it explains why Republican strategists are privately dreading a turnout-driven Democratic wave rather than a close election.

See StateLineDaily’s comparison of what prediction markets and polls are saying about the 2026 midterms — with Democrats at roughly 90% House odds on Kalshi — here.

Generic Ballot: Democrats +8 and the Check-on-Trump Vote

On the generic House ballot — which party’s candidate voters would support in their district — Democrats led by eight points among registered and likely voters, up from three in July.

And 58% of registered voters said they prefer a Democratic-led Congress as a check on Trump, against 39% who want a Republican one — a margin that has doubled from one year ago.

The “check on Trump” framing is doing real work in this election. With the Trump approval rating at a record low, midterm elections are historically referendums on the sitting president, and this one is shaping up as exactly that.

Voters are explicitly telling pollsters they want Congress to restrain the president. That is a harder problem for Republicans than a simple partisan swing, because it reflects a judgment about Trump’s governance rather than a preference between two parties.

What the Poll Averages Say About the Trump Approval Rating

The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos survey is not an outlier. It arrives days after a Fox News poll put Trump’s approval at 36% — the network’s lowest-ever reading for him across both terms — and polling averages have him deep underwater nationally.

Multiple surveys released in recent days converge on the same picture: the Trump approval rating in the low-to-mid 30s, disapproval in the 60s, and a Democratic generic-ballot lead widening as Election Day approaches.

Read StateLineDaily’s coverage of the Fox News poll for the full polling-average breakdown — including what history says about presidents polling this low before a midterm here.

What’s Next

Can the Trump approval rating recover before November 3? With 16 days left, late movement is possible but the economic pessimism driving the numbers — 48% worse off financially, seven in ten calling gas unaffordable — does not turn on a dime. History shows approval this low this close to a midterm rarely rebounds in time.

Will Democrats’ new lead on the economy hold? It is their first such lead in Post-ABC polling since 2014. Whether it is a durable realignment or a temporary inflation-driven flip depends on whether prices cool before Election Day — and right now, voters do not expect them to.

Does the enthusiasm gap decide the midterms? With 75% of Democratic registered voters certain to vote versus 67% of Republicans — and a quarter of non-MAGA Republicans preferring Democratic control — turnout math favors Democrats even before the persuasion math does.

What is the GOP’s path? Republicans are betting on Trump’s closing rally blitz to drive base turnout and on the possibility that polling overstates Democratic strength, as it has in recent cycles.

But with the Trump approval rating at a record-low 33% and his own 2024 voters cooling, that is a steep climb in 16 days.

Additional Details

Description: A new Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll puts the Trump approval rating at a record-low 33%, with 66% disapproving, just 16 days before the November 3, 2026 midterm elections.

Key findings: 52% strongly disapprove; 72% say the country is on the wrong track; Democrats lead Republicans on trust to handle the economy for the first time since 2014 (40% to 33%).

Democrats lead the generic House ballot by 8 points; 74% disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation; 48% say they are worse off financially — the highest since 1986. Survey of 2,545 adults conducted October 9-13.